Keywords: Sea level Rise (SLR); spatial planning; governance; no-regret policies; climate adaptation; water safety
As a low-lying country, the Netherlands is vulnerable for sea level rise. Despite being the best protected Delta in the world, drastic adaptation might be needed in the long-term. To investigate whether there are no-regret spatial planning policy decisions aiming for a shift in housing development towards less vulnerable areas, four long-term adaptation strategies formed the starting point of this research. General policy objectives are retrieved from them, ultimately aiming for a shift in housing development towards less vulnerable areas. Following from the intervention approaches of public policy theory and general spatial development principles, different policy instruments are constructed to guide housing development. A semi-structured interview study was conducted to investigate the broad societal impact of different, pre-defined policy instruments. (Policy) experts in the field of water management and spatial planning formed the targeted groups. The results of the interviews were assessed through a multi-criteria analysis and the outranking method. Investing in amenities and infrastructure in desirable areas came out as the highest ranked and least regretful policy instruments, but a completely no-regret solution is not found. Most experts emphasized the need for a combination of instruments. The most common regrets are: increased segregation, decreased values of assets, negative attitudes towards the policy and increased need for travel.